Forecasting medium-term distributional e¤ects of the economic crisis: A CGE-microsimulation approach
نویسنده
چکیده
We develop a CGE model that approximates a macroeconomic forecast of the German economy in the medium run. The " tted" model is used to derive wage and employment changes for di¤erent skill types and industries. These simulated changes are then handed over to a tax-bene t model that determines the net income changes at the household level. We nd negative wage e¤ects which are quite proportionally spread across the income distribution. Address: Michael Feil, Institut für Arbeitsmarktund Berufsforschung (IAB), Regensburger Str. 104, 90478 Nürnberg, Germany, [email protected]
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